Are They Telling The Truth? Follow Along As Claim Check Fact-Checks The Governor's Debate

Oct. 18--The candidates for governor have spent the last several days preparing for this afternoon's debate, rehearsing their pitches and refining their pounces as they woo voters with weeks to go before Election Day.

But this being politics, not everything the candidates say will be the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. So refresh this page as The Courant's Claim Check provides live analysis of statements made by Democrat Ned Lamont, Republican Bob Stefanowski and independent Oz Griebel.

And if you hear something in the debate worth checking, let us know at claimcheck@courant.com.

This claim is based on a study of 2011 state tax receipts showing that the 357 highest-earning households reported a total taxable income of about $15 billion. Extrapolating the figures to include the next 43 highest-earning households, and adjusting for increases in the top tax rate, the slight population growth since 2011 and increases in average earnings in the state, the $1.4 billion figure is plausible, even taking into account data on migration of high-wage earners out of the state. But it is still an extrapolation, not a known figure.

FBI statistics show the overall reported crime rate in Connecticut has been falling fairly steadily since 1990. But the rates were lower when looking well into the past -- back to the 1960s and 1970s.

An analysis of the 11,245 men and women released from Connecticut prisons in 2014 showed that within three years, 60 percent were re-arrested -- although about a third of those were arrested not for new crimes, but for violating the terms of their release. That 60 percent figure is lower than the three-year recidivism rate found in three previous analyses of inmates released during 2005 (66 percent), 2008 (64 percent) and 2011 (63 percent) -- but still represents a majority of those released.

That conclusion is premature. Rhode Island began imposing tolls in June only on large trucks -- generally those with a detachable tractor -- to raise about $500 million over the next 10 years for bridge repair. Soon after, the American Truck Associations filed suit, arguing the tolls were discriminatory and violated the federal constitution. Rhode Island officials have filed a motion to dismiss the suit, but no ruling has been made, and the question of the scheme's legality remains unresolved.

Connecticut spent an average of $19,020 per student in the 2014-15 school year, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. The national per-pupil average that year was $11,454 -- about 66 percent of what Connecticut spends on each student, each year.

Murder suspect Sergio Correa was in fact released before serving the full 10-year sentence he previously received on robbery and assault charges. But Correa was not released early as part of the "second-chance" initiative championed by Gov. Dannel P. Malloy. Rather, under a law dating to the mid-1990s, Correa was eligible to request a parole hearing after serving 85 percent of his sentence, and it was the parole board that voted to release him early.

One limited-government group -- the American Legislative Exchange Council, known as ALEC -- estimates that Connecticut's unfunded liability approaches $128 billion, but that is based on a very low assumed rate of return on pension assets. Connecticut's official estimate puts the figure at about $38 billion, and other calculations, based on different rates of return, put the figure no higher than about $70 billion.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 capped itemized deductions for state and local taxes at $10,000. In Connecticut, more than 40 percent of all federal income tax returns filed in 2015 included deductions for state and local taxes, likely reducing their tax liability by around $3.5 billion. The exact impact of the cap can't be calculated without knowing how many filers had deductions above and below $10,000, but it's not unreasonable to suggest the cap could wipe out $1 billion in tax savings. But the change in the tax law also has benefits, which will reduce those losses. The new law nearly doubles the standard deduction -- the amount those who don't itemize deductions can take off their taxable income -- and reduces tax rates for all income levels.

The controversial CTFastrak busway, which links New Britain to Hartford, cost $564 million, transportation commissioner James Redeker told The Courant in 2015. Redeker estimated the annual taxpayer-funded subsidy would be $18.3 million. Three years later, the 9.4-mile busway has cost $619 million -- a cost of $1,039 an inch.

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